Testimony…

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Faith is the foundation of scientific research – Zhou Xiaoqin
A few days ago, 97-year-old John B. Goodenough (John B. Goodenough, whose name means “good enough”), a professor at the Austin campus of the University of Texas in the United States, became one of the three winners of the 2019 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. Gudenov, the father of rechargeable lithium batteries, is the oldest Nobel laureate in history. In today’s world, almost all portable electronic products (such as power tools, medical equipment, smartphones, laptops, etc.) rely on lightweight and rechargeable lithium batteries. It can be said that the rechargeable lithium battery invented by Goodnov has opened a new era of portable electronic products.

Gudenov is an anomaly and a miracle in the scientific world. Einstein once said: “If a person has not made a great contribution to science before the age of thirty, this person is hopeless.” And Gudenov, after turning to work at Oxford University at the age of 54, began to turn to Research batteries. At the age of 64, when he was about to be forced to retire by Oxford University, he transferred to the University of Texas to continue his scientific research. At the University of Texas, he worked for more than 30 years. Goodnov is still working today! Until 3 years ago when he was 94 years old, he still arrived at the laboratory before 8:00 every morning to study new batteries and new energy sources together with his graduate students and postdoctoral fellows.

Goodnov is an open Christian. In an academic world that is hostile to Christianity, he makes no secret of his Christianity. A large “(Jesus) Last Supper” tapestry hangs in his laboratory, and many ornaments related to Christianity are placed in his office. He also wrote an 85-page autobiography, Witness to Grace, about 10 years ago, about how God led his life, including his childhood, his participation in World War II, and his going to the University of Chicago After switching to physics, he turned to research on batteries, and so on.

Gudenov is the second child in the family. When he was a child, his parents had a bad relationship with their husbands and wives. His mother was indifferent to him so he could not feel maternal love. He also had severe dyslexia since he was a child, sensitive and anxious. After going to Groton Christian residential school at the age of 12, Gudenow became more distant from his mother and had little contact. At Groton, he experienced God and understood that “God is love.” He said: “It was the first time I experienced this kind of love. I almost jumped out of bed. I was so excited.”

This cognition of being surrounded by God’s love has been with Gudnov for more than 80 years, which is the foundation of his research and development work. Goodnoff said using his gifts, and working with colleagues to develop innovations that protect the planet and improve human life, is an expression of his love for God and neighbor, the great biblical commandment.

The connection between scientific pursuits and the Christian faith was obvious to Goodenoff. He said: “If you believe in a Creator, you should show your admiration for the Creator by admiring His creation. Scientists show respect for the Creator by studying the planet we live on and how it works.” Appreciate, and use their discoveries to serve humanity.”

Before God, Gudenov has a gentle, humble, and sensitive heart, so he can use the eyes of his soul to see clearly the relationship between God, man, and other creatures, just like Christ who pioneered science in the early days Just like the giants of science. Such Christian giants as Newton, Pascal, Boyle, Kepler, Copernicus, Faraday, Joule, Maxwell, Galileo, Planck, Dalton, Pasteur, Mendel, Edison, etc. Newton said, “The thumb, if nothing else, would convince me of the existence of God.”

The testimonies of Goodnoff and Newton confirm the teaching of the Bible: “The things of God, which can be known by man, are revealed in the hearts of men because God has revealed them to them. Since the creation of the world, God’s eternal power and God’s Sex are clearly known, being invisible, yet it is understood from what has been made so that men are without excuse.” (Romans 1:19-20)

The peace that God bestows, which surpasses all understanding, will be found in Christ-Deering  https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RNTo79IWDiKo9Vy5hpoJtw

“Father of lithium batteries” Goodenough won the Nobel Prize. He was deeply troubled by dyslexia and parental relationship in his childhood. He changed his major repeatedly in university, took the master’s entrance examination twice, and finally decided on his research direction at the age of 54. “Is everything accidental? Why did these completely change my life? For me, all accidents are the manifestation of God’s love.” What he pursued all his life is actually walking with God.

On October 9, John B. Goodenough, affectionately known as “Good Enough” Grandpa, won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry. After winning the award, his legendary life quickly spread widely in the Chinese circle.

The old man was troubled by dyslexia when he was a child, and the relationship between his parents was tense when he was a child. He changed his major repeatedly during college. He majored in classical literature when he entered the school and transferred to the philosophy department in the middle. The postgraduate exam was taken twice before being admitted. It was not until the age of 54 that he started to enter the battery field, and he was called the “father of lithium batteries”. At the age of 97, he is still struggling in the front line of scientific research until recently he won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry together with two other experts in this field. Today, the mobile phones, computers, cameras, and electric cars we use are becoming lighter and safer, thanks in large part to him.

In an interview with the media, he said: “I seem to be very happy, but I don’t care about these things at my age. I will go to the laboratory every day, otherwise, I will retire and wait to die. I won’t do that.”

Many look to Goodenough as an inspirational role model for the latest version of a late bloomer. But how does he see his own life? In an autobiography published a decade ago, Goodenough sees his life as a “Witness to Grace.”

the crying child in the corner
Goodenough’s grandfather was a devout Christian, and his father was influenced by his grandfather to study theology and prepare to serve in the church. However, when my father entered Harvard Divinity School, he was influenced by the liberal theology at that time. When he followed the academic circle to “discover the Christ in history”, it directly led to the wavering of his faith. Later, my father even accepted Freud’s theory, believing that belief is just a psychological projection of people, and he gradually moved away from the faith, although he once taught at Harvard Divinity School.

Goodenough was born in 1922 as the second boy in the family, three years older than him. Gudinough’s greatest joy in childhood was exploring the meadows and woods near his home. But the tense relationship between his parents troubled him a lot. Their marriage seemed to be a disaster, but because divorce was not so popular at the time, their parents’ marriage was like a wrecked ship, and it was going forward.

Possibly affected by this, Gudinough Jr. felt extremely insecure. At night, when he was lying alone in bed, he began to worry that he would be abandoned by his parents. Sometimes, when he heard a train whizzing by outside the window, he would quietly get out of bed and go to his parent’s bedroom to make sure they were still there. Once, after Mom and Dad drove away, Goodenough was so convinced he had been abandoned that he sat in a corner sobbing until his parents returned. That was the closest he’d come to a nervous breakdown.

From the age of seven, he suffered from dyslexia. His mechanical reading was unable to make sense of the words, a problem that persisted through college.

In 1934, at the age of 12, Goodenough entered the boarding school Groton School. Near the center of the campus is a chapel, funded by Rockefeller, that serves as the center of school activity. Every Sunday, students wear their blue school uniforms for morning and evening worship. Goodenough was taken into the choir, much to his surprise. Because he thought he was tone deaf since he was a child, even his elder brother satirized him and said, “Do you have to sing?” The experience in the choir made Gudinav very happy.

Groton Middle School Chapel:Behind the Hound, a Life-Changing Awakening

Singing in the choir introduced Goodenough to the Christian faith. Despite his family’s religious tradition, his knowledge of Christianity was extremely poor. He found that the principal came to pray for the school very early before breakfast every day. He often heard the principal pray, “Oh, Lord, help us to live with dignity and for the benefit of others.”

By his third year, Goodenough noticed something in the school’s prayer book that he didn’t understand. It read Leviticus 19:2, “You shall be holy, for I, the LORD your God, am holy.” He checked the dictionary to find out what “holy” meant, but there was no one in the dictionary. An answer that satisfies him. “Holiness must be more than   keeping the law! I realized that holiness is a word that cannot be defined; holiness must be an experience. I also realized that without this experience, whether it is a biblical story or a worship service. They are separated from me by a layer of veil.”

That year, he read the story of Moses. Moses saw the bush burn and not be destroyed. “The image didn’t shock me, as the setting sun could have created the illusion of burning bushes. What really surprised me was the answer Moses got when he asked God’s name: ‘I am who I am… …that I AM has sent me to you’. These words struck my imagination, and I felt as if it were the key to my doubts.” Goodenough decided to be baptized, he hoped Through baptism, he completely lifted the veil covering his rationality.

Baptism had brought him into a community, but he still felt like a layman. Then he thought again, Maybe I’ll understand after Communion. “It turned out that my confusion was still unresolved. There must be something I had overlooked!” Goodenough said.

In the fifth school year, Goodenough took an English poetry appreciation class, which was quite a challenge for him who was dyslexic. He thought the only way to learn to read poetry was to try to write it himself, and in the process of writing it, he finally understood the metaphor. One day in February, the homework assigned by the teacher was “Hounds of Heaven”, a poem about how the author was conquered by God’s love. During the Easter break, Goodenough and his father discussed the topic of faith. His father, who was a professor of religious history at Yale University at the time, told him that human beings generally have a religious appeal, and showed him the images of various gods drawn by the ancients.

Perhaps it was the stimulation of the professional class his father gave him, although it failed to reduce the confusion in his heart, that night, he had a dream, in which the images he had seen during the day flashed before his eyes one by one, each When the secondary image appeared, he shouted: “This is not God.” Finally, the head of a hound appeared in front of him. Goodenough still said, “This is not God.” Suddenly the Hound smiled, and behind the smile, there was a gentle light. Goodenough cried out in his dream: “God is love!” He woke up excitedly from the dream, jumped out of bed, and his heart was full of joy.

The next morning, Goodenough told his father about his dream, but his father advised him not to take it too seriously. His father had no idea what the dream meant to Goodenough. “It was an awakening that changed my life,” Gudinough recalled.

After returning to school, the principal noticed a change in Goodenough’s mind. One day, the principal suggested that he study theology and serve the church. But Goodenough said he wanted to evangelize as a layman. In fact, he was still afraid of public speaking. He felt that he could not be a good preacher and that he was not worthy to represent Jesus. At that time he did not understand the power of grace to make him a new creature.

While dyslexia and insecurities haven’t gone away, Goodenough is generally happy with his studies and life at Groton. His grades continued to improve, from a B to an A to an A+ before graduating summa cum laude.

A Weather Forecaster Standing Outside the Doors of Physics

In his final year at Groton, Dad finally decided to separate from Mom and start another marriage with his research assistant. Rejected by his new mother, he decided not to accept money from his parents and left home with $35 in hand to attend Yale. Although college life was tight, fortunately, he survived by being a tutor to rich kids.

Difficulties in life were not his biggest challenge at Yale. Goodenough believed that there is a universal moral code that governs human behavior, just as there are universal laws in the physical world. But Yale’s philosophy professors teach that all moral and aesthetic judgments are relative. The professors spoke convincingly but never doubted that what they said was also relative.

“Are our ideas of holiness arbitrary or inherent in human nature? Are we going to the battlefield to fight Hitler and Tojo? Are we going to fight the barbarism of Stalin? Although different people are loyal to different ideals, we have to choose which ones to follow in these extreme situations. Sadly, we too often succumb to immediate self-interest, allowing the fleeting to lure us away from our ultimate goal, often with disastrous results.” Gudiner’s Husband began to think about the direction of life.

He recalled: “I began to understand that the meaning of life is not the approval of others, but the importance of the object we serve. Do we serve ourselves, the family, the nation, or the country as the highest object of service? I want to find my calling Zhao, maybe it’s in the field of science. In my second year of university, I decided to study philosophy of science.”

After Pearl Harbor, the United States officially entered the war. Goodenough was called up with his classmates, and he accepted the advice of his mathematics professor to enlist in the U.S. Army Air Corps as a weather forecaster. In 1945, the war in Europe is coming to an end. While eating in the cafeteria, Goodenough saw a pastor bow his head in thanks for his meal. This simple gesture brought his thoughts on faith back to him. He felt that he should read the Bible again and let the Bible speak to him. The environment at that time did not allow him to read the scriptures regularly, and the military environment often made him distracted.

After World War II, Goodenough was already a captain. Although he had the opportunity to stay in the army and do meteorological work, Gudinough did not think this was his calling in peacetime. In 1946, he came to Washington and, with the help of his former mathematics professor, got a chance to study at the University of Chicago.

On the way from Washington to Chicago, Goodenough suddenly remembered that he had hoped to study physics after the war during his service, so he immediately decided to transfer to study physics after entering the University of Chicago. When he registered, a professor poured cold water on him, “At your age, those physics masters are already honored.”

Erin later became his wife-The brave make a choice, but the coward still hesitates
As a novice in physics, Gudinav encountered a big bottleneck in his research and was admitted after taking the postgraduate exam twice. Fortunately, his mentor was Zener, the inventor of the “Zener diode”. The mentor said to him: “Now you are facing two problems: one is to find a problem, and the other is to solve it.” This sentence benefited him a lot.

Another question Goodenough had was about Christianity. He found that there were some problems with the ideas of his father, who had enlightened him in faith, and the old headmaster of Groton. The old headmaster believed that faith was mainly about morality; his father used reason to criticize all religions. Goodenough also believes in the scientific method and finds and solves problems through scientific methods, but he finds that there is another dimension beyond rationality besides science, and people should keep an open attitude to this dimension.

To that end, Goodenough joined a Christian youth group at school. Although the group members have a harmonious relationship with each other, perhaps because everyone has similar educational backgrounds, it feels very arrogant and limited, which is not conducive to real dialogue. Goodenough wanted to find someone who could both be biblical and help him discover the true meaning behind the words of the Bible.

This person really showed up. In the fall of 1949, Irene Wiseman (Irene Wiseman) came to the University of Chicago. Her father was a pastor, and Irene inherited her father’s faith. She is a gifted teacher who combines cultural sensitivity with biblical understanding and insight. She knows how to listen and have a conversation, and always makes the conversation fruitful.

Encouraged by Goodenough, Erin organized a Bible study group. In the group, Goodenough and another law student often got into heated arguments. The other Christian girls used to sit there and watch the two of them speak their minds and fight each other. In the blink of an eye, the spring of 1950 came, and it was time for Goodenough and the law school boys to make a decision. The law students retreated, and Goodenough found himself completely free of doubts about Jesus’ coming to reconcile the world with God, no longer refusing to publicly admit that Jesus was the Christ.

“A Catholic once said to me, ‘Faith is a private matter,'” Goodenough said. “No! Faith is a personal matter, but we are called to bear witness to what we see so that others may too. See. Of course, our understanding today is still vague, but we should still talk to people, open the eyes of the blind, and lead the prisoner out of prison, but first, we ourselves must allow the Holy Spirit to enlighten us. Jesus said ‘If we do not No one can come to the Father through me’, and if we don’t see Jesus, we can’t find the way to Heaven.”

A line of poetry echoed in Goodenough’s head: “The moment of decision has come, the brave make the choice, the coward still hesitates.” This sentence has often been in his mind since he appeared in the church at Groton Middle School and emerges from it until today when he finally professes his faith and commits himself to his witness to Christ.

“My son turned out to be a damn ‘puritan'”
When Goodenough told the news of his conversion to the Lord to his classmates at the University of Chicago, everyone’s reactions were mixed. Some people are condescending and disapproving, while others think he is committing suicide rationally. Another student of Professor Zener seized on Goodenough’s beliefs to gain a competitive advantage over the professor — because being a Christian in academia always feels shaky.

When he told his mother the news, her mother was furious. It was okay to show up at church and serve occasionally, but it was embarrassing for her to testify like an evangelist. The father’s attitude was even more disappointing. He said directly to a friend: “I really don’t understand why one of my sons turned out to be a damned Puritan.”

Although his parents still plagued Goodenough’s life as much as he did when he was a child, they no longer bothered him. In 1950, Goodenough ushered in the happiest time in his life, and he and Irene entered the marriage hall. At the same time, he entered the MIT Lincoln Laboratory, where he focused on research related to solid magnetism, which later became computer memory.

However, Goodenough’s project had to be terminated in 1969 when funding was cut because the lab was receiving funding from the Air Force. He lost his job. However, it was this unemployment that made him turn his attention to energy materials. Later, he accepted the invitation to Oxford University and was on the road to becoming the “father of lithium batteries”. In order to avoid Oxford’s retirement system, Goodenough, 64, moved back to the United States to continue his research work at the University of Texas.

After winning the Nobel Prize, he said: “Now my team is working hard to make batteries safer and longer-lasting. I know this is a fickle society and people don’t want things to last a long time, but I like to make things that can last a long time. .” The 97-year-old Mr. Good Enough still goes to the laboratory every day, but he is not a workaholic who idolizes his career. He is well aware of the limitations of science.

As he wrote in his autobiography, “Science is the ability to break through human limitations and change destiny, but also to suppress, threaten and destroy human beings. Science can only answer ‘why things are the way they are?’ and ‘how to use them. Does knowledge achieve its goals?’ but does not help us to make a moral assessment of human goals. To do that, we need to look elsewhere.”

Goodenough continued: “The term ‘human purpose’ itself implies a premise that our lives have meaning. This is a basic premise of philosophers, artists, and religious believers. Besides, They also believe that there is a fixed and universal moral law that governs our relationship with ourselves, other people, nature, and human nature and that this moral law can be understood by man.” In his view, people should follow what Jesus said Find meaning in life.

Goodenough is well-qualified to display his reason and intelligence, but he honestly admits: “Our existence is not the result of nature alone, but has a mysterious origin.” The proud man cannot pray, because He cannot admit that there is a being higher than himself. Goodenough, a practitioner of prayer, said: “Prayer is the acknowledgment of a mysterious Being, whom you may call the Father or the Source of Life. Prayer is the acknowledgment of His sovereignty, with whom He walks. The purpose of prayer is not to carry out our will, but to enable us to understand and practice God’s will so that the Holy Spirit can use this to change ourselves and our culture. The ultimate meaning of life is actually to walk with the eternal God .”

Is life just a series of coincidences superimposed?
“When I look back on my life,” said the ninety-year-old, “I can’t help but think that my life was guided by invisible hands. I stole, I lied, I drank, I gambled, I indulged myself as a child. Why do I think this is bad?” Goodenough, who had been taught by his parents to behave and be honest, had more than once seen his father steal a cigarette while his grandfather was visiting. “I don’t believe my childhood conscience came from my upbringing, on the contrary, we have an innate sense of fairness, justice, honor.”

How can a child who suffered from dyslexia from an early age graduate with honors and finally win a Nobel Prize? “Is this just a coincidence, or is God’s grace behind the scenes?” Goodenough asked, “When I read the story of Moses, I somehow tried to figure out what ‘holy’ meant; when I dreamed When I saw the love of God in the smile of the hound, was it all just subconscious? If so, why did these experiences completely change my life?”

“Why did I meet the banker Mr. Peabody to help me when I was facing financial pressure in college? Why did I, a student who started with classics, take the path of physics after the war? It just so happened that the math professor suggested that I not join the Marine Corps and become a weathered soldier. When my math professor knew that there was a plan for further education for veterans, was it really just a coincidence? Meeting Erin was just an accident Is it?” Goodenough obviously does not see his life as a superposition of coincidences one after another, and he does not want people to see him on the Nobel Prize podium as just an inspiration to encourage children. The story, “For me, all the accidents in my life are expressions of God’s love.”

见证篇168.高呼…

女乘客高呼主名,挽救了整个航班?
昨天有段视频刷爆不少基督徒的微信群,引起了很多人的关注。

视频上有位黄衣女子在某航班上大喊大叫,嘴里喊着“耶稣”“哈利路亚”等等词汇。而在视频的后半段,则出现了一架飞机在跑道上起火,乘客紧急撤离的场景。

根据发布者的介绍称,事件发生在阿联酋迪拜飞往牙买加的航班上。正是女子的“圣灵上身”,导致了航班延误了两个小时。

不久,机长发觉飞机引擎存在问题,并冒出火花,很快燃起熊熊大火。他赶紧通知机组人员,组织乘客有序撤离,挽救了他们的生命,避免了一场灾难。

事后,机长承认,该女子是上主派来拯救机组人员和乘客的,因此感谢主的奇妙带领。

这个“神迹”迅速引发了弟兄姐妹的关注,纷纷转发,跟大家分享这个大好信息。

不过也有信徒指出,这段视频的描述有问题,信仰中岂有“圣灵上身”的说法,这只有民间降神才会出现。这个视频应该是极端灵恩派制作的。

而有的弟兄进一步指出,现在网络科技那么发达,剪辑视频并非什么难事,不少人都具备这种技能。

于是笔者就将视频中的乘客撤离的场景截图,并用百度、360等进行识图,找到该事件的源头,从而证明了视频后半部分系剪辑而成。

http://news.carnoc.com/list/375/375179.html(来自网传“神迹”视频截图)。

几乎一样的图,这么赤裸裸的移花接木?

原来根据各大媒体报道:“2016年10月28日, 美国航空公司一架客机当地时间28日从芝加哥起飞时起火,造成多人受伤。幸运的是机长顺利降落客机,机上169人无人死亡。”

而迪拜也确实在2016年发生过类似事故,只不过当年8月3日,阿联酋航空一架客机因发生事故紧急降落迪拜机场,事故造成一名消防员不幸殉职,机上300人无人伤亡。此事件也与视频描述的完全不同。

可见,事情发生在芝加哥,而非视频所说的迪拜,这件事伪造的问题昭然若揭。

现在有些异端邪教组织为了传播其歪理邪说无所不用其极,而剪辑视频、编造神迹是他们惯用的手法。诸如此前被“空中出现天使”、“教堂被彩虹环绕”等等,都属于他们的伎俩。

他们利用很多基督徒重视神迹的心理,通过移花接木的方式,将两段视频合二为一,并附上介绍,让不明就里的人上当,接受了其错误宣传。

有些信徒之所以陷入错误的泥潭,其实跟异端邪教伪造的假见证、假神迹有关。他们看到这些奇妙事迹后,不是去分辨真伪,而是盲目相信,热心转发。当自己对异端的东西轻信时,只要他们对你稍加暗示,错误引导,你就会一步步掉入他们的圈套中。

因此,我们看到的各种视频未必是真的,尤其是各类神迹奇事,更要谨慎。广大信徒在看到神迹视频时,最好先冷静下来思考,不要盲信,更不可转发,而要想办法去核实视频的可靠性。就像这次的视频,只要截图-识图就能找到准确出处,从而揭穿这个谎言。

最重要的是,我们的信仰并不是各种奇幻的神迹奇事,而是建立在耶稣基督的真道,常存公义、怜悯、谦卑的心,并每日与主同行。只有这样,我们才能具备分辨真伪的见识,能够拆穿各种伪造视频,驳斥假见证、假神迹的错谬。

Testimony…

 Listen for 7 min

The female passenger shouted the Lord’s name and saved the entire flight.Yesterday, a video flooded many Christian WeChat groups, which attracted a lot of attention.

The video shows a woman in yellow shouting on a flight, shouting words such as “Jesus” and “Hallelujah” in her mouth. In the second half of the video, a scene of a plane catching fire on the runway and passengers evacuating urgently appeared.

According to the publisher, the incident took place on a flight from Dubai to Jamaica, UAE. It was the woman’s “Holy Spirit Upper Body” that caused the flight to be delayed by two hours.

Soon, the captain noticed that there was a problem with the aircraft engine, and sparks appeared, which soon ignited a raging fire. He quickly informed the crew and organized the orderly evacuation of passengers, saving their lives and avoiding a disaster.

Afterward, the captain admitted that the woman had been sent by the Lord to rescue the crew and passengers, so he thanked the Lord for his wonderful guidance.

This “miracle” quickly attracted the attention of brothers and sisters, and they forwarded it to share this great message with everyone.

However, some believers pointed out that there is a problem with the description of this video, and there is no saying in the belief that the “Holy Spirit is on the body”, which only appears in the folk séance. This video should be made by extreme charismatics.

Some brothers further pointed out that now that network technology is so developed, editing videos is not difficult, and many people have this skill.

So the author took a screenshot of the scene of the evacuation of the passengers in the video, and used Baidu, 360, etc. to identify the picture to find the source of the incident, thus proving that the second half of the video was edited.

http://news.carnoc.com/list/375/375179.html (from a screenshot of the “miracle” video transmitted online).

Almost the same picture, such a naked transplant?

According to major media reports: “On October 28, 2016, an American Airlines passenger plane caught fire while taking off from Chicago on the 28th local time, causing many injuries. Fortunately, the captain landed on the passenger plane without any deaths, and none of the 169 people on board died. ”

Dubai did have a similar accident in 2016, but on August 3 of that year, an Emirates passenger plane made an emergency landing at Dubai Airport, resulting in the death of a firefighter and the unmanned death of 300 people on board. This event is also completely different from what the video depicts.

It can be seen that the incident happened in Chicago, not Dubai as the video suggests, and the problem of this forgery is obvious.

At present, some heretical cults go to great lengths to spread their fallacies, and editing videos and fabricating miracles are their usual methods. Such as “angels appear in the sky”, “churches surrounded by rainbows” and so on, all belong to their tricks.

They took advantage of the psychology of many Christians who attach importance to miracles, and by transferring flowers and trees, they combined the two videos into one, and attached introductions, so that people who did not know what they were in were fooled and accepted their false propaganda.

The reason why some believers fall into the quagmire of mistakes is actually related to the false testimonies and false miracles forged by heretical cults. After seeing these wonderful deeds, they do not distinguish the truth from the fake, but blindly believe and enthusiastically forward. When you are credulous about heretical things, as long as they hint at you a little, and misguide, you will fall into their trap step by step.

Therefore, the various videos we see may not be true, especially all kinds of signs and wonders, and we should be more cautious. When the majority of believers see the miracle video, it is best to calm down and think, do not blindly believe, let alone forward, but find a way to verify the reliability of the video. Just like this video, as long as the screenshot is recognized, the accurate source can be found, thereby debunking this lie.

Most importantly, our faith is not a fantastic sign and wonder but is based on the Word of Jesus Christ, who is always righteous, merciful, humble, and walks with the Lord every day. Only in this way can we have the insight to distinguish between true and false, be able to debunk all kinds of fake videos, and refute the falsehood of false testimonies and false miracles.

生命福音[129]…

音频 三分钟

「私欲既怀了胎,就生出罪来;罪既长成,就生出死来。」【雅1: 15

当大卫王在沉思的时候,反思到他的罪孽比他的头发还多,他就心寒胆颤。这使他求告神赏 赐丰盛的慈悲。恶臭的尸体所充满的蛆,不会比未成圣之人心里污秽的私欲还多。这些私慾充满他的头、他的心、他的眼 和口。

人一辈子靠信用生活,却从未认真清偿彻底,人债、情債何等高筑!人要省察自己本性的罪和它所结的果子。人要回想自己的过犯和自己知道却没有行的善;人思想的犯罪、言语的罪、和行为 上的罪;幼年的罪和老年的罪。皆不可像一个破产的人,害怕看到自己的记录;反而要很谨慎地阅读良知的记录,反 正这些记录迟早都要在神面前被公开。

人要检查自己的心,检查自己的生命;都应彻底的省察自己所行的途径,最终能完全发现自己的罪行。我们要求告圣灵的帮助,因为自己无法成就这事,叫人知罪是圣灵的工作。人要把一切的罪摆在自己的良心面前,直到自己的心和眼睛开始哭泣,也不要停止与神和自己的灵魂争战,直到自己的灵魂在知罪中呼求!我们要和狱卒一问起说:“我当怎样行才可以得救?”

人要默想自己的罪恶所造成的伤害,因为人的罪恶就是赏赐人生命之神的大仇敌;也是人灵魂生命的大仇敌,人的罪恶 也是全人类的仇敌。但以理、以斯拉、和善良的利未人,他们想到他们的罪敌挡神和他的善良、公义的律法,并且他们的 罪是在神的怜悯和警告中所犯的。这使得他们的罪更显为大。

罪恶在世上造成何等大的伤害!这个仇敌带来死亡、 抢夺并捆绑人类、颠倒世界、产生人类和其他受造物的纷争、人与人之间的纷争、甚至人与自己的纷争、使人的肉体与他 的理性作战、使他的意志和判断作战、使他的私欲和良知作战、甚至使人与上帝作战。罪恶使人恨神,也使人在神面前成 为可恨的。

罪就是那致命的毒药,毒到只要有一滴洒在人类之根上,就腐败、破坏、毒害、并毁坏全人类 了。罪恶是血腥的行刑者,杀先知、烧死殉道者、杀害所有的使徒、所有的先祖、所有的君王和统治者;罪恶毁坏城市、吞吃帝国,不管是用什么武器执行,都是罪恶造成的!

如果亚当和他一切的后裔可以从他们的 坟墓被挖出来,把他们的尸体堆到天堂,问到底是什么穷凶极恶的凶手杀了这么多人,答案就是罪恶!我们要研究罪恶的性 质,直到自己的心开始惧怕并厌恶罪,甚至默想自己犯的罪的严重性;人在神的警告之下犯罪,人的罪恶违背自己的祷告、 违背神的怜悯、违背管教、违背最清楚的光照、违背白白的爱、违背自己的决心、违背承诺、许愿、和改善行为的合约。人要用这些指责自己的心,直到抱愧蒙羞為止。

默想罪恶所应得的是什么。罪恶向天哀告报应,罪应得的工价是死和灭亡;罪恶带来神对身体和灵魂上的咒诅。最渺小言语或思想上的罪,就使人伏在神无限量的忿怒下。那么,人成千上万的罪该获得何等沉重的忿怒和咒诅啊!罪在人的身上积蓄的报应是何等大啊!人要审查自己,免得被主的审判。

默想罪恶的残害和污染;罪和地狱一样幽暗,它是画在人灵魂上魔鬼的形象。弟兄姐妹要远离罪恶的伤害,亲近主耶稣 ! 感谢神 ! 奉主蒙恩 ! 阿们 ! 

Testimony…

 Listen for 7 min

People are bustling in church, and Jesus is knocking outside. We like to speak beautifully and do pompousness, and when the circumstances are difficult and we cannot cover up our inner poverty through ministry, and you and I who are obsessed with language are asked to live, we panic. Which Lord do we follow? It turned out to be such a fluke, there is no wind and frost on the skin of the face, and there are no nail marks on the back of the hand. Do not seek the blueprint of life, do not seek the illumination of the whole process, but be faithful to Him every day.

In fact, there are so many myths in modern society! Every day, the media keeps telling us that maintaining a certain social order will make people safe; Only by establishing a certain system can the country have a future; With a certain commodity, talent is happy; By changing a certain attitude, people can break through themselves and achieve success. Can these promises make people more authentic to the world, more creative about their future, and more compassionate about our unfortunate people? Or can it only be used to satisfy human greed, heroism, and self-centeredness? Are they apotheizing the present system? Or completely deny the world and evade social responsibility?

In ordinary days, the longer a person stays in the church, the more difficult it is to realize that Jesus is the lord of the church, and he thinks that so and so is the master of the church. And in times of trial, it’s easy to think that earthly powers have the power to make the church live or die. But the book of Revelation forbids us to live defeatists, even when the crowd has bowed to Caesar, the hungry lion of the Colosseum is roaring, the sword of the Roman soldier has been unsheathed, and we need to relearn the “mystery of the golden lampstand”: it is not a person or force who owns the church, but Jesus who walks in the middle of the golden lampstand and holds the seven stars.

Get rid of your fascination with languageWhen the environment is difficult, people naturally want more comfort and encouragement. Therefore, when trials come, people often have a passion for listening and preaching. But trials are rarely tests of whether we have the fervor to hear and preach, but rather whether we are serious about the Word we believe, even if our interests and lives are damaged. This seriousness cannot be expressed by listening to sermons or praises, and its challenge to Chinese believers is to let go of their fascination with high words and wisdom and put themselves into practice.

John begins by saying, “Blessed are those who read the prophecies of this book and those who hear and obey what is written therein” (Rev. 1:3). As if foreseeing that the Book of Revelation might be used by posterity as a talking point to satisfy curiosity and speculate about future events, John points out that prophecy is not just talking, but also carries a strong demand for earthly orientation and action.

The attachment to language and concepts is Chinese ethnic, and we believe that words and entities always have some metaphysical connection. Coupled with the increasingly rational tradition of Christianity since the Reformation, the mysteries experienced by the early church through worship, praise, prayer, and sacraments were slowly replaced by preaching and listening, and our emphasis on words and language has reached an unreasonable level.

As more and more literate intellectuals and urban middle classes enter the church, language has a certain redemptive function for middle-class believers, even to the point where it has replaced the urgency of physical practice and the necessity of obedience, and we think that by listening, understanding, dialecticalizing, and then acknowledging, we have fulfilled the requirements of revelation for man. For other things, it is enough to support others to do them, such as mission, where we give money and rarely think about the possibility of being missionaries ourselves.

The professional training of believers and preachers from this background accustomed him to understanding man and God from a logical and rational perspective. An orthodox spiritual religious language becomes their instrument of salvation—a new believer who can describe his spiritual experience inappropriate words is more easily accepted as a born-again saved person; If he did not have the proper language, he would attend make-up classes in catechumen, which often became an occasion for learning to use spiritual words.

To say the right word is to enter that realm, to fulfill that responsibility, to reach that state of life. The church also often doubts whether people who do not use traditional spiritual discourse are truly saved, and from time to time we see people rejecting an article on the grounds that “there is no mention of the cross, sin, and forgiveness.” Not mentioning is nothing, and in his mind, salvation is accomplished by words.

The hardest thing for intellectuals and middle-class believers to confront is James’s exhortation, “But walk the way, and do not deceive yourselves by listening to it alone” (James 1:22). Their educational qualifications and living standards are achieved by half their lives, comfort, safety, warmth and dignity. To truly implement the teachings of the Bible, many times it will disturb this small world and challenge its lifestyle, which is intolerable.

John’s situation is by no means easier than that of any contemporary oppressed believer, and his prospects are no brighter than anyone else’s. Christ or Caesar is no longer the subject of rational debate, but the choice of life and death; Faith ceases to be a proposition and becomes an extremely acute reality. Circumstances do not allow us to replace entities with words and the first level of obedience with a second level of responsibility. The days of peril are an opportunity for us to fulfill our spiritual words, and blessed are believers who do not use words as a medium of salvation.

With love, no matter how bitter it is, it is easy to surviveWhen the weather is good, it is both possible and universal to be a so-so Christian, even to serve two masters at the same time. It’s completely different when the environment is urgent. You are so-so, the times do not allow you, and you yourself will find it boring. Why be a Christian in a name? Think about it, if you are just a nominal Mrs. Wang and have no real husband and wife relationship with Mr. Wang, how painful it would be! What about being a nominal rich man? Anything that is nominal is painful.

Ephesian believers suffer from a common spiritual symptom of replacing love for God with work and loving others with guardianship of God. This is the “Ephesus syndrome.” Their problem is not that there is no ministry, or that there is not enough work on the outside, but that the work inside is not good enough. The common mistake of Christianity is to cover up its problems with more external services, and when someone points out something inappropriate, it likes to use many theories to refute it, confuse the truth, and cover up the truth.

Jesus’ advice to the church in Ephesus is not to defend yourself, but to reflect on where the mind fell, repent immediately, and act immediately. On a practical level, no matter how hard the church tries, it may not be able to change the general climate outside the church, but if the church is willing to truly love God and love people, it can witness God and create people. With love, more difficult moments are easy to get through. The power of the testimony of love cannot be underestimated.

The more empty and unbearable a person’s heart is, the more he likes to cover up emptiness and loneliness with dense work and entertainment, as is the case with individuals and as well as in the church. If circumstances change and we do not have the conditions to carry out external ministry, how can we be sure that we are still disciples of Jesus?

Chinese believers like to read the biographies of saints, and the more tragic the saints’ suffering, the more we like and inspire. But we rarely wonder, will one day we also want this way of the cross? Fear and withdrawal are natural, but we cannot let natural reactions make decisions for us. In times of fear and withdrawal, listen to the Lord: I am the first, I am the last, let’s try to walk together. The Lord’s sovereignty over all of us is most real and precious in times of adversity, not embellished by casual talk on days of peace and happiness.

When we suffer for God, we often feel more reason to ask the Lord for salvation, and all we have in mind is God’s promise of salvation in the Old Testament. If things don’t go your way, it’s easy to get discouraged and give up. In Jesus’ letter to the church of Priesthood, we see that He only warns of greater trials ahead, but does not mean to reduce them. His answer to the suffering believer was, “Be faithful to death, and I will give you the crown of life.” (Rev. 2:10).

Some leaders are accustomed to playing the role of messianic strongmen. If we insist that only large scenes that consume a lot of human and material resources are the only effective ministry of the church when conditions do not allow, the role of the Messianic strongman cannot find the stage. Believers who follow such leaders believe that without changing the social structure, all problems of suffering and injustice cannot be solved and that the most effective way to change society is to promote the adjustment of the power structure. But this is not the only reaction that faith communities can have, and we can stop treating those in power as targets of exhaustion, and instead serve those who lack support and have nowhere to run.

This is precisely the role of Jesus’ suffering servant. The church understood what it meant to be a “suffering servant,” and it had no more effective role in difficult times. Can we only make salt in a stable bottle, and not in a bland tasteless, and desperate state?

Where did you compromise and relax?There is a strange custom among modern Christians that they are afraid that they are too much like Christians, for fear that those who do not believe will dare not approach him. Does an unbeliever attract an unbeliever? What makes unbelievers from curiosity to believe is not a truth, but the outpouring of life temperament. People often like to quote Paul, “To whatever kind of man, be what kind of man,” but forget that Paul’s purpose in saying this phrase is to “save some people no matter what,” not out of man’s natural instinct to cover himself. So Paul likewise, “Come out of them and separate from them.” ”

In this day and age, when different streams merge and keep the Word in the name of the Lord, we cannot hope to please everyone. If we are in conflict with others for the sake of truth, ask God to tell us to stay the course. The more urgent the times, the easier it is for people to get confused and focus on the gains and losses in front of them. If we only compete for the day, the day and night of the troubled world is to become a king today and defeat tomorrow, and it is easy to disappoint people. At this time, everyone fought for his right to speak, saying that he was for justice. Christians are to learn to listen calmly and discern what is the clamor of the crowd and what is the demand of Christ, and the crowd will crucify the truth. Those who are leaders should not only curry favor with the masses, and those who are believers should not just follow the brigade.

To live in the here and now with a sense of history is to demand that you be able to account for everything you do every day before Christ’s seat; That is, when you see a little light, you trust Him to go on; We do not seek the blueprint of life, do not seek the illumination of the whole process, but only ask Him to make us forever faithful to Him, to every day, to every opportunity. Instead of stammering and not knowing how to explain to Christ, today is like living in front of the judgment seat, which is what I mean by a sense of history.

The believer is in the hands of God as the bow and arrow are in the hands of an archer. The bow and arrow are only in a state of reserve in the bow and quiver, and when the time comes, the archer will snap the arrow on the string, and the bow will be full, aiming at the target, just as God aimed at his goal with us. Do we know the goal? Most of the time it is not known, but He still pulls and makes us unbearable, we struggle and cry, and He seems to ignore it. When the time came, He shot us. Where are faith and patience needed when the wind is fine and the goal is accurate? In times of uncertain prospects and difficult lives, faith is needed like the believers of Thiathyla.

It is a fact that there are erroneous ideas in the church, both ancient and modern, and the church allows it to grow, but it has a unshirkable responsibility. Our problem is not that freedom is used to preach things that are untrue, and if this freedom is taken away, greater evil will emerge; Our problem is that too few people use his freedom to stand up and show Jesus what is right and what is wrong. We allow the teachings of Balaam, the Nigollahs, and Jezebel to pass unimpeded in the church.

The crisis facing the Church of Sadie is that this church, which has a good reputation before men, actually exists in name only, and nothing is complete before the Lord, and it does not know it. But “In Thadde, there are several of you who have not defiled their clothes, and they will walk with me in white, for they deserve it.” (Revelation 3:4) Deserving does not mean what they have done to earn salvation, but refers to believers who are excluded and suffer from their faith and whom the Lord considers worthy of walking with the Lord.

A life worthy of is a life that is before God and pleasing to God, not before man. Do not say that you do not know how to distinguish between what God means and what man means; Don’t use another question to escape the real problem. Know for yourself that you must compare with your inner voice with the opinions of others and the measure of pros and cons, and disturb your heart with skeptical voices and debating attitudes.

There is a joke that sounds absurd at first glance, but it goes deeper it speaks of the blood and tears of the church and even the personal depravity – a rich American businessman goes to see the Pope. They walked and talked in the garden, followed by the cardinal. The cardinal only heard the rich merchant say, “How about a million?” The Pope shook his head and said, “No.” “Five million, then!” Rich businessmen speak with hope. “Still can’t.” The Pope said stubbornly. The cardinal began to frown. “The last price, 10 million is fine!” The rich businessman looked anxious. The Pope still firmly replied: “Not really!” The rich merchant looked disappointed and left sadly.

Then the cardinal stepped forward: “Why are you so stubborn? Ten million we can do a lot of things, how many poor people can be helped? What exactly is he asking you to do? The Pope replied quietly: “He asked me to pray in front of the crowd in the future, and I would say last: pray in the name of Coca-Cola, Amen.” ”

Have you ever heard of churches and institutions doing degrading things to others in order to raise money? The phenomenon in Christian circles is often more absurd than this joke. There are always people who think that the church is his, and he can do it as he wants. Whenever we replace the ideal of Christ with the ideal of man and the standard of the Bible with the standard of the world, the church and institutions will inevitably fall into the state of existence in name only. When we can be alerted that we are in the hands of Christ, the One who observes subtlety and has abundant grace, we feel the severity of His grace and immediately turn around and come back to life.

Think back to yourself, where you went wrong, where you compromised and relaxed, these are only known to you. When you think back and know, you have to honestly repent, and this is how the road back takes the first step.

Listen, He is knocking outside the doorOne of the harsh realities of living in this generation is that principled people inevitably suffer. One of the most astonishing visions of Revelation is that it is the slain lamb who gets the throne. One day when believers appear before the throne of the Lamb to pay for their lives, the slain lamb will also be amazed, how can we live our lives with flesh and skin? Which Lord do we follow? Can it be such a “fluke”? How come there is no wind and frost on the skin and no nail marks on the back of the hand?

This does not mean that we Christians have to “find death” ourselves, but that we must have a life that will be born after death, a life that is no longer afraid of killing the body and cannot kill the soul, a life that is covered by the power of the resurrection so that the church can be established in the most unlikely places and change society.

The sin of the Laodicean church is not indifference, lack of spiritual heat, or indifference to Christ. From their boast that “there is no shortage of everything”, it can be seen that this church should be quite good in the eyes of people, and it is unlikely that it will be completely inactive in religion. Just like the problem of Laodicea is not that there is no water, but that the temperature of the water drops after the groundwater flows here, it can not be regarded as a healing hot spring, and because the cooling is not enough, there are too many impurities to drink, and their religious activities are useless. People were making noise in the church, but Jesus was knocking outside the door. The spiritual function of the Laodicean church has suffered from severe “atrophy.”

In the face of a radically changing society, what can people expect from the church to do for them? The church should have a passion for helpless people in society, just as Jesus had mercy on people when he saw them like sheep without shepherds. We must learn to ask the question: What would Jesus do if He came into our society and faced the same people? Will He reduce all problems to spiritual problems?

In the case of spiritual problems, are all spiritual problems gospel problems? Why didn’t the Lord Jesus solve the problem of juvenile officials with a gospel plan, and if he used the gospel plan to solve his problems, instead of forcing him to sell everything and give it to the poor, which is obviously not a typical gospel plan, wouldn’t we have a happy ending? Why didn’t He first criticize Zacchaeus for being greedy and harming others, as the crowd did, before accepting him?

He touches living people, and their problems become His problems. As a newborn king, he accepted all the problems of life that represented the old powers, and the way to fight them was not only the transmission of the gospel ideas, but practical solutions: the confused gave him heavenly guidance, the hungry gave him food, and the sick healed him. This is the passion he has in the face of those afflicted by the old forces, and the passion that will eventually cause him to suffer and be crucified. The newborn king never defended his rights in any way, and in his only “yes,” he intervened fully, confronted and overcame in the face of death and those tormented by the fear of death.

Seriously, what was the church at that time? In the face of the Roman Empire, they were just a group of small people with no power and no influence. If you ask, “What’s the use of this?” I asked, “Where is the mighty Roman Empire today?” “The weak church has become a community that history cannot ignore, and many people have tried to erase it, but none of them succeeded.

Jesus’ seven epistles to the church end with His own knocking at the door, and we should also listen quietly to His knocking, the door of our hearts, the door of the city in which we live, the door of our nation. Those inside the door can celebrate with complacency and great events so that they cannot hear knocks; People inside the door can also be depressed and self-pitying because of suffering, so they cannot hear knocking. Living in this age, it is our duty to listen to His voice and to believe that the knocker is the triumphant King, and whoever hears and opens the door will sit with Him on the throne.

每日活灵(244)…

音频 三分钟

「他们心地昏昧,与神所赐的生命隔绝了,都因自己无知,心里刚硬;」【弗4: 18

神不只创造人,也安置人;今天我们所处的环境,都是神按着祂的美意所安排的。神把人安置在伊甸园,那里是快乐、称心悦意的地方,可见人的受苦并不是神的本意,相反地,神要人常常喜乐。

神创造人之后,就为着人生命的维持,而预备了丰盛的粮食;祂也为着信徒的灵命,备有丰盛的属灵粮食。信徒的灵命要长大,便须天天享用属灵的粮食。

人的堕落、败坏,乃始自里面的昏花;所以我们里头若不明亮,就当留意,因为这就是开始堕落的信号。人的心地麻木、顽梗、固执,表明他是被神弃绝的;这种人得罪神,却不怕祂的审判,仍是我行我素,毫无忧虑地过着取悦自己的生活。

信徒与教外人有不同的生命和生活境界,彼此的行为规范也不一样。不尽本分而妄想享受权利,不种而想收获,不切实际的空想等,都不是信徒所当有的存心和行事表现。

外邦人也是‘与神的生命隔绝’。这生命是神非受造、永远的生命,是人在受造时未有的。在受造后,带着受造生命的人被摆在生命树前,好接受那非受造、神的生命。但人堕落到心思的虚妄里,并在悟性上变为昏暗。人在这种堕落的光景中,无法摸着神的生命,直到人悔改,并相信主耶稣,以接受神这永远的生命。

神造人的目的,是要人有分于生命树的果子,而得到神永远的生命。但在人堕落时,撒但邪恶的性情注入人里面。结果,人不得不与生命树隔开。当主耶稣死在十字架上时,祂满足了神荣耀、圣别、公义的一切要求。所以,借着主耶稣的救赎,为我们打开通路,使我们得以再次接触生命树。奉主蒙恩! 阿们!   

Testimony…

Listen for 8 min

When it comes to the so-called “assurance of salvation,” I always feel that this is an extremely serious and even terrible proposition, and if I don’t pay attention to it, it will usurp God’s sovereignty. But in reality, too many people treat it casually. There is a class of people who are always anxiously looking for every detail of life, or getting answers from other people’s mouths; contempt together with cultivating life), and take it for granted that they must be saved, Christians. In any case, it is dangerous to get too entangled or to be too hasty. The assurance is in no one’s hands but God’s. Of course, I always believe that our inner conscience (never feeling) and the Trinity God will give the answer in unison. This article attempts to break the superficial shell and give an inner explanation.

“How do I know I’m really a Christian?”

I asked this question to a spiritual elder when I was young. “What’s there to worry about?” the other party replied. His answer was reassuring and plausible, but in fact, it was wildly misleading. Although I forget the exact content of that conversation, his main point was clear: “If you’re afraid of hell and want to be a Christian, isn’t the evidence clear enough?”

He seems to be right. So I stopped worrying, convinced that heaven was a sure thing for me. Could it be another result? After all, I love Jesus and fear hell.

Of course, this “assurance” was extremely dangerous because I was not a Christian then.

In fact, arbitrarily judging a person’s salvation is dangerous no matter what. Because having a Christian lifestyle doesn’t mean you’re saved. It is entirely possible for lost people to imitate Christian habits and develop similar religious feelings.

I am very aware of this. I was once a theology graduate, active preacher, and devoted gospel worker. However, I am not a Christian.

I am afraid many are in a similar false assurance. They grew up in a Christian family, formed certain “Christian” habits, and accepted certain “Christian” ideas-but they didn’t know the narrow road that led to eternal life. Many people believe that having a Christian lifestyle is enough to guarantee salvation. This kind of self-deception is dangerous—it is perhaps the most dangerous kind of deception.

Eight Deadly False Assurances

There are eight deadly false assurances that make those who have no true faith in Christ look, feel, or act like Christians.

First, I prayed a prayer of resolution.

We all know that a formulaic prayer does not save people. However, there will always be people who regard certain types of prayer as the primary evidence of salvation. They always equate prayer with faith. But no matter how memorable a prayer, a person is truly saved only when he repents and trusts Christ with all his heart (Acts 20:21).

Second, I repent of sin.

Believers in Jesus or not, God’s law is written in our hearts. Therefore, we feel guilty when we sin (Romans 2:15). Even Esau, who was greedy for the world, would cry out for the consequences of his sin (Hebrews 12:17). Unbelievers also repent of their sins from time to time, but they have not repented, trusted God, and therefore cannot remove their guilt (2 Corinthians 7:10).

Third, I feel very close to God.

In today’s age, the thing that deceives us the most is our feelings. We will be eager to elevate feeling and equate it with the truth. The truth is this: We can feel a lot, and not all of them are true to reality.

Fourth, I became godly.

This is my most common mistake: When I see that I am more Christlike (more humble!) than most people, I am sure I am saved. The apostle Paul probably felt the same way before he became a Christian. In Philippians 3, he says, “If anyone thinks he can trust in his own righteousness, much more can I trust.” In fact, as far as “righteousness according to the law” is concerned, he has “nothing to rely on.” accusing” (Philippians 3:6). By today’s standards, Paul was very “godly” when he was young, but he was not a believer at that time.

Fifth, I pray, read the Bible, and go to church.

Prayer, reading the Bible, and going to church are essential channels of grace in Christian life. However, there are also unsaved people in the church (Matthew 13:24-30). There are also people in the church who have tasted the good deeds but have not really known God (Hebrews 6:4-9). Hypocrites also pray anytime and anywhere (Matthew 6:5).

Sixth, God has given me a happy life.

God gives sunshine and rain to believers as well as unbelievers (Matthew 5:45), and many other daily blessings (James 1:17). His common grace pervades all areas of our lives. While we should thank God for this, we cannot equate His common grace with His saving grace.

Seventh, I have served the Lord.

Matthew 7:22-23 tells us very clearly that some people who have done a lot of service for Jesus will be excluded from the kingdom of heaven. No matter how many fellowships you have led, how many ministries you have been in, or how much evangelism you have preached, it will not guarantee that you will actually be saved. Many who think they have served much will hear the terrible words of the Savior: “I never knew you, go away from me!” (Matthew 7:23)

Eighth, I believe in the death and resurrection of Jesus.

This is by far the most misunderstood spiritual fruit. Belief in the truth of the gospel is not the same as salvation and true faith. Come to think of it, demons have more theological understanding than any of us, yet none of them are saved (James 2:19). Unless our head knowledge is translated into real trust, it is not biblical Christianity.

stay away from these false assurances

I had all of the above false assurances when I was not a true Christian. I looked, felt, and acted like a Christian, and it blinded me (and everyone who knew me) for decades. Don’t be surprised, however, that same lifestyle is now evidence of my true salvation.

Before I truly believed in the Lord, I lived under the burden of keeping the law. I ask myself to do what a Christian should do—and I do my best to do it. For years, I tried to act like a Christian.

Finally one day, God showed me my sin—the day I really understood what it meant to be separated from a holy God. It was on that day that I turned away from my sins (including my own “false godliness”) and accepted by faith the forgiveness of sins that Jesus had done for me on the cross. From that moment on, the assurance of my salvation is no longer my works, abilities, and wills, but the salvation that Christ has accomplished. I turned to Christ and had no other security than Him.

And here lies the irony: When I stop trying to look like a Christian, I become a true Christian (1 John 2:3-6). When we trust in Christ alone, a Christ-like life naturally arises.

For those who are in Christ, godly habits, ideas, and affections do not come from the observance of Christian liturgical norms. Evidence of this kind is insufficient. It is the Holy Spirit who turns our hearts (Ezekiel 36:26) through Christ’s word of forgiveness (Acts 10:42-43) so that we can bear spiritual fruit.

Once we fix our eyes on Christ alone, the assurance of “true godliness” becomes a cause for joy! When we understand that salvation is only in Christ, a life of devout prayer, full of faith, and enthusiastic reading of the Bible becomes beautiful evidence of God’s work.

It is not enough to look like a Christian. Only being in Christ is enough. Then we can—and should—have real assurance of salvation.

见证篇167.得救…

提到所谓的“得救确据”,总觉这是极其严肃甚至可怕的命题,稍不留意会篡夺了神的主权。但现实中遇到太多人随意地对待它,有一类人总在忧心忡忡地从每一个生活细节中寻找,或者从别人口中获取答案;还有一类人则完全不在意宗教标准(连同基本的灵修生活一同鄙弃),想当然地确信自己一定是得救的基督徒。不管怎样,过分纠结或者过分草率都是危险的,这份确据不在任何人手里,唯独在神那里。当然,我始终相信,我们内在的良心和三位一体的上帝一定会一致地给出答案。本文尝试打碎肤浅的外壳,给出了内在的解释。

“我怎么知道我真的是基督徒?”

我年少时曾向一位属灵长辈问过这个问题。“这有什么好担心的?”对方如此回答。他的回答让人宽慰,而且看似很有道理,事实上却极其误导人。尽管我忘记了那场谈话的具体内容,但他的主要意思很明确:“如果你惧怕地狱,并且想成为基督徒,证据还不够明显吗?”

他好像说得很对。所以我不再顾虑,确信天堂对我来说已是板上钉钉的事。还能是别的结果吗?毕竟,我喜欢耶稣,惧怕地狱。

当然,这种“确据”极其危险,因为那时我还不是基督徒。

事实上,随意判定一个人得救,无论如何都是危险的。因为,拥有一种基督教的生活方式并不意味着得救。失丧之人完全有可能模仿出基督徒的习性,产生相似的宗教情感。

我非常清楚这一点。我曾经是一个神学毕业生、积极的传道人、忠诚的福音工人。然而,我不是基督徒。

恐怕许多人都处在类似的虚假确据中。他们在基督教家庭长大,形成了某些“基督徒”习性,接受了某些“基督教”理念——唯独不知道那条引向永生的窄路。许多人相信,拥有一种基督教的生活方式就足以保证得救。这种自欺是危险的——它也许是最危险的欺骗。

八种致命的虚假确据

有八种致命的虚假确据,它们会让那些没有真正信靠基督的人看上去、感觉是、或表现得像基督徒。

第一,我作过决志祷告。

众所周知,一个程式化的祷告并不能让人得救。然而,总有人把某种类型的祷告当成得救的主要证据。他们总是把祷告与信心相等同。但是,不管某个祷告多么让人难忘,只有当人全心地悔改和信靠基督时(徒20:21),他才算真正得救。

第二,我为罪懊悔。

无论信不信耶稣,上帝的律法都写在我们心里。因此,我们犯罪时会感到内疚(罗2:15)。即便贪恋世俗的以扫,也会为自己犯罪的后果号哭切求(来12:17)。不信的人也时常为他们的罪懊悔,但他们没有悔改、信靠神,因此无法除去自己的罪咎(林后7:10)。

第三,我感觉跟神很亲近。

在当今世代,最容易欺骗我们的就是感觉。我们会急于抬高感觉,把它与真理等量齐观。真相却是:我们可以有很多感觉,但不一定都合乎事实。

第四,我变得敬虔了。

这是我最常犯的毛病:当我看到自己比大多数人更像基督(更谦卑!),我就确信自己得救了。使徒保罗在信主之前很可能也这么觉得。在腓立比书第3章,他说,“若有人想他可以靠自己的义,我更可以靠着了。”实际上,就“律法上的义”来说,他是“无可指摘的”(腓3:6)。按照现在的标准,保罗在年轻时是非常“敬虔”的,然而那个时候他还没信主呢。

第五,我祷告、读经、去教会。

祷告、读经、去教会是基督徒生活中必不可少的蒙恩管道。然而,教会中也有没得救的人(太13:24-30)。教会中也有尝过善道的滋味、却没有真正认识神的人(来6:4-9)。假冒为善的人也会随时随地祷告(太6:5)

第六,神赐我幸福的生活。

上帝赐阳光雨露给信的人,也给不信的人(太5:45),此外还有许多其他日用的赐福(雅1:17)。祂的普遍恩典遍及我们生活各处。尽管我们应当为此感谢上帝,但我们不能把祂的普遍恩典与祂的救赎恩典等同起来。

第七,我服事过主。

马太福音7:22-23非常清楚地告诉我们,有一些为耶稣做过很多服事的人将被排除在天国之外。无论你带领过多少团契,参与过多少服事,或传过多少福音,这都不能保证你确实得救。许多自以为服事很多的人将会听到救主那可畏的话语:“我从来不认识你们,离开我去吧!”(太7:23)

第八,我相信耶稣的死和复活。

迄今为止,这一条最容易被人误解为属灵的果子。相信福音的真实性并不等同于得救和真信心。想想看,鬼魔比我们任何人有更正确的神学认识,然而它们没有一个得救(雅2:19)。除非我们的头脑知识转化成真正的信靠,否则就不是合乎圣经的基督教信仰。

远离这些虚假确据

当我还不是真正的基督徒时,我拥有以上所有的虚假确据。我看上去、感觉是、表现得很像一个基督徒,这蒙蔽了我(和每个认识我的人)几十年。然而,别惊讶,同样的生命样态现在却是我真正得救的证据。

在没有真正信主之前,我活在遵守律法的重担之下。我要求自己做基督徒应该做的事;而且我拼尽全力去做。多年来,我努力表现出一个基督徒该有的样子。

终于有一天,上帝向我显明了我的罪——那一天我才真正明白与这位圣洁之神隔绝意味着什么。正是在那一天,我从罪(包括自己“假敬虔”的罪)中转离,凭信心接受耶稣在十字架上为我成就的赦罪之恩。从那个时候起,我得救的确据不再是我的行为、能力和意愿,而完全是基督已经完成的救恩。我转而信靠基督,除祂之外,别无保障。

而反讽的地方就在这里:当我不再追求外表像基督徒,我就成为真正的基督徒(约一2:3-6)。当我们单单信靠基督,自然就生发出一种像基督的生命。

对于那些在基督里的人,敬虔的习性、理念和情感并不是从遵守基督教的礼仪规范而来。这一类的证据并不足够。是圣灵藉着基督赦罪的道(徒10:42-43)扭转了我们的心(结36:26),使我们能结出属灵的果子。

一旦我们单单定睛于基督,那由“真敬虔”而生的确据全都变成喜乐的缘由!当我们明白救恩只在基督里,一种敬虔祷告、信心充满、热心聚会读经的生命就成了彰显上帝工作的美好证据。

外表像基督徒,远远不够。只有在基督里才足够。这样,我们才能 – 其实也应该 – 有真正的得救确据。

每日活灵(243)…

音频 三分钟

「全身都靠祂联络得合式,百节各按各职,照着各体的功用,彼此相助,便叫身体渐渐增长,在爱中建立自己。」【弗4: 16

基督身体的建立,乃在于各肢体的配搭相助;而各肢体的真实配搭,甜美相助,惟在各肢体都持定元首基督,凡事长到祂里面。

在教会中不要只顾自己作工,也要顾到别人作工;主喜悦你带领别人一同作工,过于你自己单独作工。教会建造的实行,是全教会都动员的,各站各的岗位,众人都一同运用自己所有的那一份恩赐,配搭起来一同服事主。

我们不可在某方面有了长进便以为足,因为它可能成为拦阻我们「凡事长进」的原因。在追求长进的事上,最大的难处就是遇不见主。

教会的一切活动──包括读经、祷告、服事、奉献等等,若不连于基督,不尊基督为首,便都是死的。所有的肢体都连于元首,和头有正常的关系,彼此之间才能有正常的关系。

只有爱才是实现灵性长进的要素与空气;教会只有在爱的气氛中才能增长。

教会请某些人来向他们供应神的话,这并没有错。然而,地方教会不是这样建造起来的。地方教会必须靠地方教会本身渐渐长大。即使一个很小的教会,也必须凭自己长大。一个地方教会必须借着每一丰富供应的节,并借着每一部分依其度量而有的功用,在爱里把自己建造起来。那些有特殊供应的人,不仅在整体的身体里面,也在那作这一个身体之实际彰显的地方召会中。

即使在圣徒人数很少的召会中,也许只有十五个人,那里仍然有一些人有特殊的供应。这对每一个地方教会该是个鼓励。借着领头之人特殊的供应,以及每一部分的功用,教会便在爱里叫自己渐渐长大。这样,我们就要看见肢体的长大,使基督的身体得着建造。奉主蒙恩! 阿们! 

通胀,还是通缩? …

一、大央行主义

过去,美联储一直执行沃尔克和弗里德曼奠定的对称式通胀目标。自1990年代以来,欧美不少国家以2%的通胀率作为货币政策的唯一目标。2012年美联储首次确认通胀、就业与利率三大目标,其中首要的是将对称式通胀目标控制在2%以内。

这次,美联储用平均通胀目标替代对称式通胀目标的区别是,允许“一段时间内”物价涨幅超过2%。这说明美联储对待通胀的态度更加宽容,更倾向于推高通胀而不是抑制通胀。

货币主义的观念是“通胀猛于虎”。大疫之年,美联储大规模发行货币,大洋彼岸的人对美国的通胀感到担忧,为什么美联储还倾向于推高通胀?

从1984年到2008年,美国持续了20多年的增长,通胀一直维持在低水平。这被认为是货币主义的胜利。但是,金融危机后,美国通胀率长期低于2%,被认为处于通缩状态。

这时,通缩焦虑替代了1970年代的通胀后遗症。凯恩斯主义认为“通缩比通胀更可怕”。大疫之年,美联储发了很多货币刺激经济,但是依然通缩。10月美国CPI同比增长仅1.2%,美联储关注的核心PCE价格指数10月同比增长仅1.4%。

鲍威尔不修改目标,但暂时摆脱通胀率目标的束缚,以加大货币刺激的力度。周小川关注的问题则更进一步,指出通胀指标的度量有问题。他在文章中指出,“近期美联储货币政策目标转向了平均通胀目标。如果按过去的度量方法得出的通胀很低,而资产价格上升得比较多,会出现不可忽略的结果,货币政策的设计和响应难以坚称与己无关。[1]

在经济学中,通货膨胀是指流通中的货币过多导致贬值的一种经济现象,其表现为市场价格上涨,通常以CPI(消费者物价指数)作为衡量指标。理解通胀需要注意两点:

一是通胀是由货币超发引起的,表现为市场价格上涨,但是市场价格上涨不等于通胀。比如,因突发灾害导致粮食短缺引发物价上涨,这不被界定为通胀。

二是CPI只是反映通胀水平的一面“镜子”,是一面不完整的镜子。反映通胀的镜子,还包括资产价格、劳动力价格、公共用品价格等等。

货币超发引起房价、股价及资产类价格大涨,但物价没有大幅上涨,这也说明市场发生了通胀。所以,目前以CPI为核心的通胀指标未能真实地反映通胀水平。甚至,这种狭义的通胀指标,还导致了资产价格上涨。为什么?

央行以物价指数作为通胀率目标,相当于给商品市场设置了一条价格高压线,这引导货币更多地流向房地产、股市、虚拟货币等资产市场。这就造成两种糟糕的预期:一是实体经济低通胀预期促使央行进一步加大货币刺激(像当前的鲍威尔);二是资产价格膨胀预期,吸引更多的资金进入。

如果央行以控制物价为通胀目标,并且屡屡拯救房地产及金融市场,就会出现实体通缩、资产通胀的两极化问题:货币在通胀高压线的驱使下流向资产市场,当资产价格出现风险时,央行又一次次救市。这就催生了道德风险,建立了资产价格只涨不敢跌的预期,更多的资金涌向投资周期短、流动性好的资产市场。资产价格上涨,富人财富增加,更多的资金进一步配置在资产市场上;中产购买刚需房,真实债务增加,房地产、金融等市场“外溢”出来的资金又回流到房地产;穷人真实财富缩水,消费趋于谨慎,消费市场进一步萎缩。整个社会的储蓄率上升,资金经由商业银行和投资银行,又流向资产市场。

当然,美国的货币市场的流动性比中国更大,资金容易流向家庭及消费市场。大疫之年货币超发,通胀预期也增加,美联储提前给市场做思想工作,放宽对通胀的容忍度。

所以,央行的以物价为核心的通胀目标以及干预政策(大央行主义),导致了资产通胀、实体通缩的二元局面。

现在提出的问题是:通胀指标是否应该涵盖资产价格,一篮子价格指数是否更真实地反映市场的通胀水平?

一篮子价格指数,涵盖物价、资产价格、劳动力价格、公共用品价格等,更能够反映真实的通胀水平。这是一面更真实的镜子。

这个做法有统计学意义,但没有经济学意义。为什么?

不论是CPI还是一篮子价格指数,作为通胀指标,都无助于央行制定更科学的货币政策。大央行主义的思路是,通过国家(央行)信用,为经济基本面兜底,建立“大而不倒”的商业银行体系,实施稳定的利率政策,以维持物价稳定和社会经济的基本盘稳定。CPI通胀指标的坏处是失真,其好处是更准确地反映物价水平,更有助于央行稳定物价。所以,CPI作为通胀指标,已是大央行主义最佳选择(当然也是糟糕的)。

如今时过境迁,经济基本面的风险早已从物价转移到资产泡沫,于是,央行试图将资产价格纳入目标加以控制。一篮子价格通胀指标更具真实性,一定程度上可以缓解资产通胀、实体通缩的两极化。但其坏处是对物价稳定不够灵敏,结果通胀率不高,但物价可能大涨(如调权重,则自欺欺人),对普通民众伤害更大。更严重的问题是,整个经济的市场价格被央行控制,趋于失灵状态。结果是,如我前面文章所说的“全球经济通往计划之路”。

所以,调整通胀目标,像“人丑怪镜子”。一篮子价格通胀目标是“正确地回答了错误的问题”。问题在“人丑”,而不是镜子。问题在大央行主义的计划干预,而不是具体的指标与目标。

这是货币制度的问题,更是经济学思想的问题。

二、底层双循环

接下来,我们沿着“资产通胀、实体通缩”的思路,分析中国经济通胀-通缩的基本格局。

银保监会主席郭树清近日发文指出:“目前,我国房地产相关贷款占银行业贷款的39%,还有大量债券、股本、信托等资金进入房地产行业。可以说,房地产是现阶段我国金融风险方面最大的‘灰犀牛’。”[2]

房地产泡沫,只是通胀问题的一面镜子。它还有另一面镜子,那就是低制造(价格低、工资低、技术低)。

通常,随着常年大规模的出口,制造业快速增长,工人收入增加,外汇收入增加,消费力增强。这时要区分不同的汇率制度:如果是自由汇率制度,民众会增加商品进口,经常项目趋于平衡,生活水平和财富在不通胀或温和通胀中上升(优选);如果是结汇制度,主要消费停留在国内市场,商品价格和制造业工人的工资也随之上涨——财富与通胀共同增加(次选)。

但是,以上两种情况,中国都没有发生。目前的情况接近于第二种,但不是物价、工人工资上涨,而是房价大规模上涨。当然,我并不是说中国的物价、工人工资没有上涨,只是这两者的涨幅远不如房价,也不如货币增长。十年前一个麦当劳麦辣鸡堡套餐15元,现在是29元,涨幅近一倍。而这十年,M2增长了近3倍;深圳住房均价上涨了4倍左右,其中南山区、福田区上涨幅度超过6倍。如果以实际价格来算,制造商品及劳务是“通缩”的。再与国际相比,中国北上深的房价比肩国际大都市,但是商品的价格与工人工资,与国际水平相去甚远。

这是为什么?

在货币、土地及金融制度的作用下,高房价与低制造存在逻辑关系。简单逻辑是,房价大幅上涨吸收了大量的家庭收入,削弱了消费市场,抑制了商品价格及工人工资上涨。

如果加上“外汇”这一维度,我们就会发现,中国高房价、低制造的通胀-通缩格局是一种内外“双循环”:最开始大规模廉价劳动力制造了大量廉价商品,商品出口创造了巨额的外汇;央行通过结汇制度以外汇储备发行人民币,外汇很快成为人民币最大的“锚”;依托外汇占款发行的大量人民币进入房地产,房地产价格膨胀,反复吸收家庭财富,削弱了消费能力,商品价格和劳动力价格涨幅偏低;房地产泡沫出现,资本外流和人民币汇率下行压力增加,美元加大买入廉价商品,外汇市场稳定,中国出口创汇增加……

我有以下三组数据论证上面的内外“双循环”:

1)外汇占款

1993年,中国央行的“外汇占款”占总资产的比例仅为10.5%。此后,伴随着外贸出口暴增,外汇占款持续攀升,到2013年12月,达到了峰值83.29%。

换言之,外汇是人民币第一大“锚”,我国基础货币的价值是由劳动工人的体力与创造支撑的。

依托外汇占款发行了大规模的人民币,可能引发国内通胀,但是物价并未大幅上扬。这些钱去哪儿了?

2)银行贷款

2008年到2017年,工行、农行、中行、建行四大行累积投放信贷规模为252.76万亿,其中个人住房贷款为68.84万亿,占比27%,制造业贷款49.34万亿,占比为19%。再加上房企贷款,十年内四大行投向房地产的贷款规模总计达87.96万亿,占比34.8%。

从变化趋势来看,2012年,个人住房贷款历史性地取代制造业贷款,成为四大行贷款的第一大投放方向。

换言之,我国信贷货币的价值主要是由房地产及土地支撑的。尤其是自2012年以后,更多的货币投入到房地产中,而非制造业。

货币流向房地产加剧了“高房价、低制造”的趋势。高房价抬高了家庭负债,打击了家庭消费。据中国人民银行调查统计司的报告显示:在有负债的居民家庭中,76.8%的家庭有住房贷款,户均家庭住房贷款余额为38.9万元,占家庭总负债的比重为75.9%。

高房价抑制了国内消费市场,资金脱实向虚,制造业维持在低价格、低工资、低技术的水平。当房产泡沫加剧资本外流时,低制造又在外汇市场上形成对冲。

3)国际收支

根据国家外汇管理局公布的国际收支初步数据,今年第三季度,经常项目顺差942亿美元,资本项目(含净误差与遗漏)逆差849亿美元(上季净流出911亿美元)。这组数据可以看出,中国的资本是外流的,但是商品出口大于进口,从4月至10月,出口已连续正增长,支撑了汇率上涨。

通常,房地产泡沫增加,资金外流加大,外汇市场会承受巨大的压力。但是,中国大规模低廉的商品出口持续支撑了外汇市场。今年下半年,欧美国家疫情严重,生产受阻,供应能力被削弱,依赖于向中国进口,加上美元相对疲软,推动人民币持续升值。最近几十年,支撑中国人民币汇率的并不是资本项目,而是商品出口。

这就相当于:出口创汇为高房价兜底,高房价为出口创汇创造便利。但是,这是一种市场扭曲。市场扭曲程度越大,越是积重难返,越是陷入被动。

假如(只是假如)更多的货币进入消费市场,物价上涨,制造的出口优势被削弱,结果可能导致:出口制造减少,工人工资反而下降;通货膨胀和资产泡沫双重冲击外汇市场。从这个角度来说,通货膨胀(物价上涨)是比房地产泡沫更可怕的存在。

是否有机会形成“更多的货币进入消费市场”这种假设?

当前,中国还有6亿人月可支配收入低于1000元,同时家庭杠杆率高,所以国民不高的收入、不足的消费、较高的杠杆、不完善的社保,无以支撑消费扩张,推动物价上涨。

房价全面下跌是否会挤出大量的货币进入消费市场?中国经济周期是房地产周期,如果房价全面下跌,市场预期趋于悲观,消费与投资更加谨慎,家庭收入减少,经济短期内更可能通缩而非通胀。

剩下似乎只有一个条件:超发货币,消费信贷扩张,引起物价上涨。但是,以当前对蚂蚁的监管态势,消费信贷趋于收敛。

不过,依然存在一种通胀风险,那就是货币的“锚”贬值。

上面我们讲到,外汇是中国央行最核心的资产。2013年12月外汇占款达到了峰值83.29%,之后持续下降到2019年的58.7%,下降接近25个百分点。

下降部分被什么资产替代?答案是“对其他存款性公司债权”,即央行对商业银行的债权。对其他存款性公司债权的比重在2014年只有6.4%,到2019年上涨至31.5%,增加了25个百分点,正好覆盖了外汇占款的降幅。

这说明什么?人民币对应的抵押资产正在从美元外汇(制造商品与劳务)转向缺乏实体支撑的金融票据。这是通货膨胀隐性风险。这种风险与国民收入无关,与消费市场膨胀无关,与资产价格跌落无关,直接由货币失锚(贬值)触发。如果触发,更可能是滞胀。

三、国际经济学

通常,通胀“掠夺”财富,通缩“清洗”财富。

如何摆脱这种风险?

中国经济存在一些二元结构,所有的二元结构都可以追溯到国内外二元结构这个问题上。目前高房价、低制造的通胀通缩二元结构,是国内外市场没有完全打通的结果。所以,需要在货币、银行、金融、土地等制度上形成内外一体的经济循环。

国际宏观经济学中有个三元悖论:在开放经济条件下,本国货币政策的独立性、汇率的稳定性、资本的完全流动性不能同时实现,最多只能同时满足两个目标,而放弃另外一个目标。

美国采取的是货币政策独立、汇率自由浮动和资本自由流动;中国香港采取的是固定汇率、资本自由流动和货币政策不完全独立;中国内地目前不完全符合“三元悖论”。

假设货币政策独立、汇率自由浮动和资本自由流动这种政策,国际资本对房价泡沫和通货膨胀形成抑制。当国内房价上涨,风险出现时,资金加速外流,房价会自动回落。所以,国际市场给国内市场带来外溢性风险,也会对货币政策形成约束,平抑国内市场风险,起到“削峰填谷”的调节作用。这也符合蒙代尔-弗莱明模型[3]。但是,国际市场仅仅起到约束作用,根本上还是要内部改革。

1)国际资本与土地制度

中国香港是开放经济体,国际资金自由流动没能平抑其房价。为什么?问题在香港土地制度。香港的土地供给被垄断,供给规模小,渠道单一,更有助于国际资本爆炒。土地垄断制度叠加国际资本形成更加扭曲的房地产市场。

2)国际资本与汇率制度

1988年,中国处于价格闯关的关键时期,美国经济学家弗里德曼正好来中国给出的建议是:放开外汇管制,有助于物价平稳。他还指出,外汇管制更削弱了国家的对外竞争力。

什么样的汇率制度风险更低?固定汇率还是自由浮动汇率?

汇率制度与资本流动是相结合的。如果是固定汇率与资本自由流动的组合,资本流动有助于平抑内部通胀,但前提是这个国家具备足够的外汇与经济实力以维持固定汇率。如果是浮动汇率与资本自由流动的组合,资本流动有助于约束货币滥发(“世界货币”美元除外)。在这种制度下,个人持有外汇可以进口商品,可以对外投资,国际收支趋于平衡。如此,巨额的外汇不会转化为本币形成“外汇占款”的货币超发,可以避免类似于当年西班牙的“价格革命”,抑制通货膨胀和房地产泡沫。

3)国际资本与货币制度

当今世界主要国家都奉行大央行主义,弗里德曼的货币主义本质上也是大央行主义,只是干预最少的大央行主义。弗里德曼试图使用国际资本、浮动汇率对货币政策形成约束。但是,弗氏忽略了货币的外部性(网络效应)。

为什么国际资本对美元滥发的抑制作用非常有限?因为美元是首屈一指的“世界货币”,对国际资本构成垄断。当然,对于普通国家来说,国际资本对货币政策构成约束。但是,这种约束也是扭曲的。普通国家只能跟随美元周期来实施宽松或紧缩政策,从而酝酿了周期性的国际外汇风险。

所以,国际资本自由流动与大央行主义的货币制度是冲突的,根本问题不在国际市场,而是大央行主义。

本质上,货币供应,是由个人(央行)和政策目标决定,还是市场(银行)与自由竞争决定?

大央行主义支持前者,试图通过科学的宏观指标来确定合理的货币供应及利率。凯恩斯主义试图根据货币流速的不同而匹配相应的货币供应量,以达成诸多宏观经济目标。弗里德曼把问题简化了,他拉出历史数据证明货币流速长期是稳定的,货币供应量起决定性作用。弗里德曼认为,通过控制货币供应量实现物价平稳,是货币政策的唯一目标。

凯氏、弗氏都是大央行主义,都强调人为控制货币供应,以实现宏观经济目标。其实,任何宏观经济指标,如CPI、GDP、PPI等,都不具有经济学意义,只有统计学意义。从经济学角度来看,宏观指标违背了方法论的个人主义,若用于价格调控,则破坏了经济规律与竞争规则。

大央行主义越是追求稳定,市场反而越不稳定,更可能爆发通胀、资产泡沫,亦或陷入低效的稳定。如果使用CPI作为目标调控货币,物价稳定但资产价格膨胀;如果一篮子价格作为目标调控货币,经济陷入长期低效。

当今世界应该废除大央行主义,采取另外一种思维构建货币框架。

在之前的《债务经济是“巨婴经济”》等文章中我讲过,重塑货币及银行制度,建立自由竞争的货币供给制度:央行作为公共机构只负责设定货币制度及履行监管职责,商业银行负责货币发行,让市场决定货币供给和利率。

首先,需要强调的是,央行对银行监管极为重要,但监管不涉及到货币的价格与供给。正如法与经济学家波斯纳所强调的:契约法不干涉交易价格与供给。央行与商业银行是契约关系,前者不能干涉利率及货币供应。

其次,央行重在建立货币制度,高价值的“锚”是货币稳定的基础,以此替代无休止的价格及供应干预。

什么才是好的“锚”?需要满足三个条件:由国际市场定价、价格稳定、流动性好。有些人提出采用国内资产,如基础设施、农村土地、生态资源,替代美元成为人民币的“锚”。不是不行,但必须符合以上三个条件。国内资产必须是证券化的,这样流动性才好,最关键的是经由国际市场定价,受到国际市场的认可。

所以,开放经济体反而不需要储备那么多的外汇,这种国家可以使用一些经由国家市场定价的优质资产作为本币的“锚”。非开放经济体需要储备大量的外汇,构建很宽的护城河。但这个护城河还未必保险。与大海联通的内陆河反而更平稳,而内陆湖容易堆积成“堰塞湖”。最近几年,25%的外汇占款被央行对商业银行的债权替代,是否可行?这其实是考验中国商业银行的实力。如果中国商业银行的实力在国际市场的自由竞争中受到认可,其价值被确认,自然没有问题。但是,如果商业银行的实力是个未知数,则会增加人民币的未知风险。

第三,货币的供应及价格交给商业银行。

很多人担心,商业银行追逐利润,是否会盲目性借贷,引发通胀和资产泡沫。

货币价格稳定等同于货币质量,避免通胀其实是为了确保货币质量稳定。在央行监管和自由竞争之下,央行不给商业银行兜底,商业银行要追逐利润目标,就必须控制风险,进而必须谨慎放贷,进而促使利率和货币供给稳定,最终维持高质量货币和低通胀水平。在这一制度中,商业银行自由竞争等同于高质量货币与低通胀水平。

最后,套用弗朗西斯·福山的一句话来结尾:大海啸时代的每一滴水,落到个人身上都是一座大山。

加息

通胀持续“高温”逼迫美联储紧急“救火”。3月以来,美联储连续七次加息,包括连续四次加息75个基点。联邦基金利率水平在不足一年内从接近零快速升至4.25%至4.50%之间,创下美联储自上世纪80年代初遏制高通胀以来最为激进的加息行动。

美联储主席鲍威尔在今年最后一次货币政策会议后表示,截至目前,货币政策快速收紧的全部效果“尚未显现”,美联储仍“有很多工作要做”。美联储官员继续认为通胀风险偏向上行,预计继续加息将是适当的。

美联储在通胀问题初现时未及时出手饱受诟病,为“纠错”而激进加息则大幅扰乱全球经济和金融市场。美国财政部长耶伦日前坦言,包括美国在内的发达经济体为恢复价格稳定而实施的集中宏观经济紧缩政策,可能会产生外溢效应,新兴市场和发展中经济体受到的冲击将最为严重。

联合国贸易和发展会议近日在报告中指出,本轮全球经济经历高通胀最初是由过度需求和供应链中断导致,而非工资和物价水平的螺旋上升所致。因此,美联储货币紧缩政策可能无法根本解决此类通胀问题。

衰退

时至今日,美联储大规模加息不仅未能有效缓解通胀势头,反而对本国经济增长构成阻碍。根据美联储发布的全国经济形势调查报告,截至11月底,美国物价水平继续攀升,经济增长速度已经放缓。

报告显示,利率上升和通胀高企继续对经济活动造成压力,纽约、堪萨斯城等辖区经济已经出现小幅萎缩。展望未来,各辖区普遍认为经济前景的不确定性有所增加,对经济前景的悲观情绪也有所加剧。

哈佛大学经济学教授加布里埃尔·霍多罗夫—赖克认为,美国经济衰退前景已经显现,只是衰退程度大小的问题。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示,高通胀和美联储加息正在“侵蚀一切”。随着美元走强,石油等能源产品价格将继续走高,“很可能使(美国)经济脱轨,引发轻度甚至严重衰退”。

据彭博社11月公布的一项调查结果,经济学家普遍预计,未来一年美国经济出现衰退的可能性从10月份的60%升至65%。个人消费支出价格指数或在2023年上半年上涨3.7%,明显高于美联储设定的2%长期通胀目标。

美国经济及相关政策对全球经济的影响持续外溢。联合国贸易和发展会议在报告中警告,以美国为首的全球主要央行继续加息和出售资产造成企业借贷成本不断上升。鉴于非金融企业目前的高杠杆率,不良贷款或急剧增加并引发破产潮。报告敦促发达经济体改变货币政策和财政政策方向,避免全球经济遭受比2008年国际金融危机和2020年新冠疫情更严重的损失。